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How to calculate probability of BREAST CANCER using BAYES THEOREM.

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Hello Doctor,
I am an Information technology student in USA, I am doing thesis. We are developing a software tool to calculate the mutation risk of BRCA1,BRCA2, Tp53 and PTEN gene of breast cancer. We are using family history to detect the presence of faulty gene in the family. I want to know how you can predict the probability of mutation risk of the consultant using Bayes Theorem?

For example, if the consultant grandmother (maternal) and her aunt (maternal) had breast cancer. How do you calculate the probability of cancer in the consultant using Bayes Theorem?. How do you calculate prior probabilities and conditional probabilities in this case?

Could you please help me. I don't have any other source to clear my question.

Thank you very much
Sincerely
Sherin John

Category: Family Physician-GP

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Dr. Jaydeep Tripathy
Category: HIV- AIDS Specialist
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 26 Doctors Online

Expert:  Dr. Jaydeep Tripathy
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Hello,
Thank you for your query at DoctorSpring.com
Since he ejaculated outside you, there is no concern for pregnancy here.
The literature says that precum can lead to pregnancy in rare cases, however that is more theoretical, and practically I haven't seen a case getting pregnant from precum.
Also it was day 22 of your menstrual cycle, so it is pretty late and ovulation would have occured around the 15th day. So again practically there is no chance of pregnancy.
Feel free to discuss further,
Regards.


Patient replied :

Thank you for your response so quickly. Just one follow-up question-i am scheduled to have my period by Thursday of this week. If that occurs, would that be 100% reassurance?


Expert:  Dr. Jaydeep Tripathy
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Hello,
Yes definitely.
Period is the most conclusive evidence of no pregnancy.
Hope this was helpful,
Regards.

Dr. Jaydeep Tripathy
Category: HIV- AIDS Specialist
Experience: 
MBBS from Sri Ramachandra University in December 2011
M.Med (Family Medicine) - TNMGR University, Chennai
MBA-MPH in Public Health in March 2016, SRM University
Finished AFIH in March 2016, SRM University
MRCP ( UK ), Internal Medicine, Royal College of Physicians, June 2016
Fellowship in Diabetology from Martin Luther University in January 2017

Currently Resident Physician, in MD Radiodiagnosis - Kamakshi Memorial Hospital, Chennai
Dr. Jaydeep Tripathy and 4 other Medical Specialists are ready to help you

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